Written by Summary High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. The long and short-term forecasts remain negative, and the nowcast is neutral. But there have been several important improvements, as interest rates in, e.g., mortgages have declined significantly in the last month; and gas prices are close to back below $4/gallon. These improvements, bolstered by Friday’s jobs report, ought to pause the idea that the country is in a recession now. Andrii Dodonov Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark your beliefs to market." In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators. A Note On Methodology Data is presented in a "just the facts, ma’am" format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized. Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses […]
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