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Written by Summary High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. Between a hawkish Fed and another good headline jobs report, interest rates increased back near their recent 10 year highs. At the same time, commodities declined sharply, confirming the end of the manufacturing Boom. Declining gas prices have helped the nowcast, but the long leading forecast got even more negative. Dilok Klaisataporn Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy, and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark your beliefs to market." In general, I go in order of long leading indicators, then short leading indicators, then coincident indicators. A Note on Methodology Data is presented in a "just the facts, ma’am" format with a minimum of commentary so that bias is minimized. Where relevant, I include 12-month highs and lows in the data in parentheses to the right. All data taken from St. Louis FRED unless […]
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