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Record oil supply this year will not meet demand, with a gradual shift in the balance leading to a notable shortfall in availability by the end of 2023, according to the IEA today. The Paris-based organisation’s monthly Oil Market Report (OMR) projected demand to rise by 1.9mn b/d to 101.7mn b/d this year, an upgrade from its previous forecast for a 1.7mn b/d increase, and supply to increase by 1mn b/d to 101.1mn b/d. These compare with respective forecasts of 101.6mn b/d and 100.8mn b/d made in the December OMR . The IEA forecast shows supply outstripping demand by nearly 1mn b/d in the current quarter and in the second quarter again marginally, before a flip. Demand in the third and fourth quarters will be 1.6mn b/d and 2.4mn b/d respectively above supply, it said. The IEA cautioned that the timing and pace of a Chinese demand recovery and of Russian supply resilience will affect its forecasts. The former is "surrounded by even more uncertainty than usual", the IEA said, but it doubts there will be a big upward revision given a "persistently dim macroeconomic outlook" in the country. But China will overtake India to become the leader in […]
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