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World oil demand will grow by 2.4 mb/d in 2023 to 102.3 mb/d, a new record. China’s rebound continues unabated, with its oil demand reaching an all-time high of 16.3 mb/d in April. The non-OECD accounts for 90% of gains this year, as OECD demand remains lacklustre amid the current manufacturing slump. An increasingly adverse macroeconomic climate will act as a headwind in 2024, and as the post-pandemic recovery will largely have run its course, oil demand growth is set to slow to 860 kb/d. Non-OPEC+ leads world supply growth through next year, adding 1.9 mb/d in 2023 and 1.2 mb/d in 2024. As for OPEC+, total oil output in 2024 is set to decline by 200 kb/d as production curbs are carried through the year. Total oil supply is forecast to reach record high levels of 101.3 mb/d this year and 102.3 mb/d next year. In May, world oil supply fell by 660 kb/d to 100.6 mb/d after extra cuts from some OPEC+ producers kicked in. Saudi Arabia has promised to curb output by a further 1 mb/d in July. Russian oil exports dropped by 260 kb/d in May to 7.8 mb/d, largely unchanged from a year ago. […]
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