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TERADAT SANTIVIVUT Before I dive into the oil data, there are a few important things that need to be said. First, I believe the selloff you saw in oil over the past week is more related to: 1) macro worries; and 2) technical (gap fill) factors rather than something oil-specific. It is important to point out, however, that the physical oil market has not been very strong, either, which has disincentivized anyone looking to get long. So when you couple the two things we said with a softening physical oil market, readers should not expect prices to move higher. In addition, oil market balances in April show a small deficit. And looking at U.S. total liquids, we are flat for the month, which is in line with our expectations. EIA, HFIR Going forward, there are two important catalysts on the horizon: Improving oil demand data (more on this later). OPEC+ production cut. Now that the technical gap fill has taken place and oil has given back all of the gains it achieved from the surprise OPEC+ cut announcement, we can finally focus on fundamentals again. I believe firmly this year’s oil market balance comes down to just one variable […]
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