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BC-Oil-Agencies-Diverge-on-Peak-Stocks-Length-of-Return-Journey , Julian Lee (Bloomberg) — There’s no doubt that excess global oil stockpiles are draining quickly. But just how fast they are falling and how far they still have to go remains a matter of contention. The world’s three major oil agencies — the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries — have diverged significantly since January in revising historical demand estimates and that has big implications for how far stockpiles have moved from normal levels. The agencies also have very different views on the speed at which excess inventories are being depleted. All three see the pace of stock draws slowing in the current quarter, following big reductions in the second half of last year. But the IEA and OPEC see a much more dramatic slowdown than their U.S. counterpart (see chart below). That is due in large part to big downward revisions to demand estimates as a result of renewed virus-induced lockdowns in Europe and an increase in cases in parts of Asia. OPEC slashed its demand forecast for the current quarter by 950,000 barrels a day from last month’s report and cut year-on-year growth from 1.25 million […]
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