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Fitch Ratings-London/Warsaw/New York-21 June 2023: Fitch Ratings has cut its oil and gas price assumptions for 2023 and the 2024 European TTF gas price, reflecting weaker demand and robust supply in the near term. We have increased our 2025-2026 and mid-cycle oil assumptions due to expectations of gradually increasing demand, at least in the next five to seven years, which will eventually be met by rising production in OPEC+ countries, North America and potentially some other regions. 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Mid-cycle Actual Old New Old New Old New Old New Old New Base Case Brent (USD/bbl) 99.0 85.0 80.0 75.0 75.0 65.0 70.0 53.0 65.0 53.0 60.0 WTI (USD/bbl) 94.3 80.0 75.0 70.0 70.0 60.0 65.0 50.0 60.0 50.0 57.0 Henry Hub (USD/mcf) 6.4 3.5 3.0 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75 TTF (USD/mcf) 37.2 20.0 12.0 20.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 Stress Case Brent (USD/bbl) 70.0 70.0 45.0 50.0 35.0 35.0 45.0 45.0 48.0 48.0 WTI (USD/bbl) 65.0 65.0 42.0 47.0 32.0 32.0 42.0 42.0 45.0 45.0 Henry Hub (USD/mcf) 2.0 2.5 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 TTF (USD/mcf) 10.0 10.0 7.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 3.0 4.5 […]
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